Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
