Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
